Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
